Monday, June 20, 2011

Silver Trading slows and trades in a range...where's the opportunity?

I would like to elaborate on my May 2011 idea to go long straddles on Silver when the contracts value at 15% or less. 

The last two months (since the end of April), Silver (ETF - SLV) has been trading at a range between $32.00 and $37.50 per share and currently resides around $35.00.  A very important component to pay attention to on these contracts is that the volume is back to levels prior to April 2011.

If the average volume holds true over the next few quarters, one can expect a much less volatility on the action of the price.  Being the case, long straddles will not pay off since the current cost to put on the trade is 19% of the price out to October and 24% out to January 2012. 

Also, it appears the market has sustained limited volatility, even after the announcement of a potential default of Greece.

The writing is on the wall that we have a ton of liquidity in the market place to sustain a growing economy.  Whether the growth (over the long-run) is real growth is irrelevant as I'm in the camp that the price of volatility will decrease.

Since these contracts cost well of 15%, at this point, I feel the edge would be to those that are going short straddles and strangles on Silver and perhaps, other commodity investments.

Take care and Avenge!

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